Forecasting & Prediction in an Innovation Context.
Forecasting & Prediction in an Innovation Context.
The world is facing increased growth and change. The changes make the future uncertain as no one knows what new changes can occur tomorrow; no one knows that future. However, forecasts and predictions can help us get a close result on the changes and uncertainties in the future. Both play a vital role in determining a business’s success in the future. Forecasting estimates the characteristics, success, and demand of a product or technology (Watts & Porter, 2017).
Predictions and forecasts identify possible strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. When firms use them correctly, they enjoy growth and development. Firms and researchers use the results from forecasts for appropriate decision-making and business planning.
For accurate forecasts and predictions, firms use a combination of scientific analysis of previous data and subjective considerations.
Nikola Tesla’s Prediction of Phones and the Internet
Nikola Tesla was a Serbian-American physicist, inventor, and futurist. In his time, he made several predictions about technology and the future. In 1909, Mr. Tesla had an interview with the New York Times where he predicted the creation and use of mobile phones (Ercegovac et al., 2001). He said,
“Soon, we would be able to transmit wireless messages across the world easily, and each individual would have and operate their apparatus. A man would carry this apparatus (the phone) in his breast pocket”.
In 1929, he also predicted the invention and use of the internet. His prediction came fifty years before the World started using the internet. In his interview, he said;
“When we perfect the application and use of wireless technology, we will convert the world into a huge brain. We shall create instant communication regardless of distance”. We would also see and hear each other face-to-face via television and telephony, regardless of the miles that separate us. Our phones would allow us to do all these and more”.
Tesla also made other predictions about current technologies like 3D printing and electric bombs. His prediction on phones and the internet came true, and we can testify as we all use these innovations. The world has evolved far past his predictions too.
The Forces Supporting Nikola Tesla’s Predictions.
Research and Technological factors played a vital role in the actualization of Tesla’s predictions. After his predictions, several scientists started researching how to create mobile phones. In 1983, Martin Cooper and other scientists teamed up to create the DynaTAC 8000x.
Several scientists investigated and modified the mobile phone. Today we have variations of mobile phones, including; iPhones, Samsungs, Nokia, Motorola, etc.
Investors were eager to partner with scientists and phone companies. It prompted results and encouraged others to explore the phone creation and use field. Investors provided the researchers and firms with financial resources and necessary exposure.
References
Ercegovac, M., Milovanovic, B., Marinicic, A., & Vujic, J. (2001). Nikola Tesla: 145 years of visionary ideas. 1, 2-4. 10.1109/TELSKS.2001.954901
Watts, R. J., & Porter, A. L. (2017). Innovation forecasting. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/3709830_Innovation_Forecasting
Comments
Post a Comment